Shadowrun
Shadowrun General => General Discussion => Topic started by: martinchaen on <04-25-14/2212:27>
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A discussion in a recent thread made me wonder about the mathematical probabilities of rolling a glitch and/or a critical glitch with any given number of dice.
I've tried my hand at creating an Anydice function for SR5 rolls, but I'm doubting my mathing abilities after a long working week, so I figured I'd ask the community to chip in.
SR5 changes the probability of a glitch / critical glitch by requiring "more than half", as opposed to SR4's "half or more" dice rolled resulting in 1s.
As such, the first function checks for at least one hit and more than half 1s, and the second function checks for no hits and more than half 1s. I'm wondering if I'm somehow inspecting the sequences incorrectly, and I haven't found a way to iterate the functions for several numbers due to the fact that anydice rounds down instead of up.
Anyway, thought I'd throw this out there as a curiosity. The function does not correctly account for 1 and 2 dice, as in both of those cases a glitch and a critical glitch is the same as rolling 100% of the dice as 1s.
http://anydice.com/program/3a5e
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Lemme check with a different set, using "1" for 1 and "10" for 5 and 6: 4.17% of 2 and 0.46% of 3, 2.78% of 12 - that's 4.63% of a critical glitch, 2.78% of a glitch, which matches your numbers.
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I updated the calculator here http://anydice.com/program/94e5 with more dice rolls. It is funny how odd numbers are much worse off than even numbers. Also, the odds of glitching at all past about 3 dice is low (with 5 dice it is about 3.5%).