NEWS

Why is Seattle Metroplex's population so low?

  • 57 Replies
  • 18871 Views

Major Doom

  • *
  • Chummer
  • **
  • Posts: 152
« on: <04-18-16/0806:51> »
I was flipping through Emerald Shadows, the book that gives facts about Seattle, which is within the new Seattle Sprawl Digital Box, and noticed the populations for each district is so small.  Especially since this is the Seattle Metroplex and it's the 2070s.  For example, Downtown has a population of 555,000 only.  I summed up all the districts' populations, including Council Island (which I know is not officially part of Seattle), Outremer, and the Ork Underground, and just came up with 3,107,250.  Why is the population for a dystopian future sprawl so low?

Now I don't know if those numbers just represent SINners, or both SINners and SINless.  But wouldn't you think there would be a lot more people in Seattle?  NYC to this day, in real life, has a population of over 8 million.  I would think that in the 2070s with advances of science, people living longer, Orks producing offspring in litters, Seattle being a major sprawl, and many other factors, the population of at least the SINners would be around 10-15 million alone.  Anyone have any theories?
"Ok, you people! Sit tight, hold the fort, and keep the home fires burning. And if we're not back by dawn... call the president."
-- Jack Burton

Wakshaani

  • *
  • Ace Runner
  • ****
  • Posts: 2233
« Reply #1 on: <04-18-16/0855:42> »
The urban grind kills off people at about the same rate that new ones are born. (Sounds odd, I know, but around 120 years ago, cities killed *vastly* more people than they produced, and required a constant 'feeding' from the countryside to stay viable) ... and, yeah, there's a large SINless population that isn't counted. The Underground, for instance, has somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 uncounted people due to that.

And you have no idea how much I want to kill that 'litters' thing off.

Sister Mary

  • *
  • Newb
  • *
  • Posts: 4
« Reply #2 on: <04-18-16/1006:14> »
 "My" Seattle has a lot more population than that: Around 10 - 12 million, mostly SINless. But then, "my" dystopia includes vast masses of the Poor and Exploited living just outside the fences and walls. A highly instable society where only massive police violence keeps the revolution at bay.  ;)

Medicineman

  • *
  • Ace Runner
  • ****
  • Posts: 2310
« Reply #3 on: <04-18-16/1036:19> »
a few thoughts about that:
1) the two Vitas waves killed  ca 30-35% of all Humanity in the 2020s
2) the 3+ Millions are the SINners only (ImO).
you could add 1 or 1.5 Mio Sinless  or more if you want your SR even more dystopian ;)
(look at the Post above mine )
3) CGL messed up the numbers ?
especially if you consider all the white refugees from the NAN after their liberation in 2030

with a few Dances
Medicineman
« Last Edit: <04-18-16/1039:08> by Medicineman »
http://english.bouletcorp.com/2013/08/02/the-long-journey/
---------------------------------------------------
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1V7fi5IqYw
---------------------------------------------------
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RYlAPjyNm8

Mirikon

  • *
  • Prime Runner
  • *****
  • Posts: 8986
  • "Everybody lies." --House
« Reply #4 on: <04-18-16/1046:10> »
There's a few reasons for the population numbers.

First, as Wak said, cities are NOT safe places to be. Cities where you often have running gun battles between shadowrunners, police, gangs, mobsters, corpsec, and more are even less so. Then you add in ghoul attacks, areas that are actively hostile to your health (Glow City), and more, and you have death rates that are only barely balanced by birth rates. The fact that most orks live in areas that are more prone to have high death rates also keeps the ork population in check.

Second, you have three rounds of VITAS, natural disasters, mass slaughters like the Night of Rage, wars (US balkanization, etc.), the Arcology Shutdown, Universal Brotherhood, and more that cause additional deaths.

Third, those numbers don't include the SINless, which could as much as double the numbers, or even triple them in some areas.

Combined, this makes the numbers much more believable. Remember, as recently as the 2030s the state of Oregon was all but completely depopulated! That's what allowed the elves to swoop in and make Tir Tairngire. A population of over four million people had been reduced to almost nothing. And Oregon wasn't one of the places worst hit by the troubles of the early half of the century.
Greataxe - Apply directly to source of problem, repeat as needed.

My Characters

Medicineman

  • *
  • Ace Runner
  • ****
  • Posts: 2310
« Reply #5 on: <04-18-16/1052:02> »
but like all Modifiers you shouldn't only take the negative ones into account ;)
There's  the huge Number of growing Ork Population,or the huge amount of Refugees after the NAN War....

HokaHey
Medicineman
http://english.bouletcorp.com/2013/08/02/the-long-journey/
---------------------------------------------------
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1V7fi5IqYw
---------------------------------------------------
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RYlAPjyNm8

Wakshaani

  • *
  • Ace Runner
  • ****
  • Posts: 2233
« Reply #6 on: <04-18-16/1119:24> »
Not thatmany refugees hit Seattle, oddly. Teh ones on the west coast largely went to California (Then still part of America) while the ones east went, well, East. Those to the south could go either way, or possibly stayed in the Pueblo, which was pretty chill about letting people hang out (unlike, say, the Sioux or, even worse, teh Ute!) ... so, those within, say, fifty miles of Seattle came in, but those further away probably went elsewhere. Then you get the assorted VITAS outbreaks, a large chunk of the meta population either A) bailing out for the Tir (back when it was for *all* metas!) or B) Dying in the Night of  Rage, and from there, just the general grind. Orks are the one population that's expanding at a healthy rate, but even they have to face high levels of Ork-on-Ork crime, kidnapping/experimentation, excessive police violence, and general racism + short lifespans. Oh, and lots of SINless people, natch.

For some *strange* reason, teh Ork community doesn't trust the human-run government. Can't imagine why.

DragginSPADE

  • *
  • Newb
  • *
  • Posts: 59
« Reply #7 on: <04-18-16/1127:51> »
Okay, reading this topic made me curious and since I have time on my hands today I did some checking.

Population statistics from Seattle districts present day (2013-2015 depending on city, taken from a quick google search) vs 2050 (first Seattle sourcebook, I don't have the new digital box)

District                                                      Present Day                           2050     

Downtown                                                 662,400                             545,000
(Present day city of Seattle)

Renraku Arcology                                         N/A                                  70,000
Aztechnology Arcology                                 N/A                                    5,000
Renton                                                        97,000                             218,000
Bellevue                                                    133,992                             209,000
Tacoma                                                     203,446                             375,000
Everett                                                      105,370                             229,000
Auburn                                                        58,582                             218,000
Snohomish                                                    9,401                             115,000
Ft Lewis                                                       48,558                              98,000
(Joint Base Lewis-McChord today.)
Redmond                                                     57,530                            498,000
Puyallup                                                       38,609                            506,000
Council Island                                              24,098                                3,000
(Mercer Island today)

Total                                                         1,438,986                         3,089,000

My big takeaways from this is that Seattle today is geographically large but nowhere NEARLY as densely populated as New York City.  (Thank God.)  By the Shadowrun era most of the refugee population squeezed into the outlying districts while Downtown has stayed roughly the same but become more concentrated into Arcologies.  The Ork Underground isn't specifically listed in the 2050 sourcebook, its population is either uncounted or figured into the Downtown population. 

All populations in the 2050 book are estimates, the Redmond section specifically says the Redmond barrens population is estimated and could be anywhere from 300,000 to 700,000 due to the difficulty of counting the residents.  If you want to vary the numbers much you can very easily assume there were huge inaccuracies when they estimated the SINless population.

Edit:  I just checked the Seattle 2072 book.  The populations given for all the major districts (Downtown, Redmond, Auburn, etc) are the EXACT SAME as the 2050 sourcebook.  Funny how the population didn't change at all in 22 years, huh?   ;D

« Last Edit: <04-18-16/1135:59> by DragginSPADE »

farothel

  • *
  • Prime Runner
  • *****
  • Posts: 3859
« Reply #8 on: <04-18-16/1144:27> »
Well, the dragons, ghouls, shedim and other assorted nasties have to eat something, right? ;)
"Magic can turn a frog into a prince. Science can turn a frog into a Ph.D. and you still have the frog you started with." Terry Pratchett
"I will not yield to evil, unless she's cute"

Reaver

  • *
  • Prime Runner
  • *****
  • Posts: 6424
  • 60% alcohol 40% asshole...
« Reply #9 on: <04-18-16/1317:01> »
I would say for certain that those numbers do NOT include the SINless.

For one, without a SIN, you are not technically a 'real' person, nor a citizen of a Country, thus not counted in a census.

As to how high of a SINless population, who knows. There have been 2 crashes that mucked up records, and we know from fluff that many people lost their SIN during the crash 2.0...
Where am I going? And why am I in a hand basket ???

Remember: You can't fix Stupid. But you can beat on it with a 2x4 until it smartens up! Or dies.

Major Doom

  • *
  • Chummer
  • **
  • Posts: 152
« Reply #10 on: <04-18-16/1338:47> »
I actually underestimated the damage VITAS did.  I read on the Shadowrun wiki that the first strain killed off billions of people worldwide, with the second strain killing off close to another billion in the 2020s.  Too bad though, because having overpopulation is a staple in a dystopian future.
"Ok, you people! Sit tight, hold the fort, and keep the home fires burning. And if we're not back by dawn... call the president."
-- Jack Burton

Xasten

  • *
  • Newb
  • *
  • Posts: 4
« Reply #11 on: <04-18-16/1345:50> »
When you consider that there's a lot of polluted areas, that many rural areas are very dangerous to live in thanks to awakened hazards, and that some nations are extremely xenophobic, with the right tweaks you can easily justify why cities would be jam packed dystopias.

Beta

  • *
  • Ace Runner
  • ****
  • Posts: 1984
  • SR1, 5, 6. GM@FtF & player/GM@PbP
« Reply #12 on: <04-18-16/1443:27> »
When you consider that there's a lot of polluted areas, that many rural areas are very dangerous to live in thanks to awakened hazards, and that some nations are extremely xenophobic, with the right tweaks you can easily justify why cities would be jam packed dystopias.

Sure, but when it comes to Seattle there is limited amounts of those things -- but it is consistently described as being full, most people being in low grade apartments or squats (it seems even reasonably valuable wage slaves don't have houses), after fifty years the squats and slums still haven't evolved into something more livable .... to me the population density for the official population just isn't high enough to support that.    At least not without assuming almost as many sinless as sinners.  (All IMO)

Reaver

  • *
  • Prime Runner
  • *****
  • Posts: 6424
  • 60% alcohol 40% asshole...
« Reply #13 on: <04-18-16/1520:00> »
When you consider that there's a lot of polluted areas, that many rural areas are very dangerous to live in thanks to awakened hazards, and that some nations are extremely xenophobic, with the right tweaks you can easily justify why cities would be jam packed dystopias.

Sure, but when it comes to Seattle there is limited amounts of those things -- but it is consistently described as being full, most people being in low grade apartments or squats (it seems even reasonably valuable wage slaves don't have houses), after fifty years the squats and slums still haven't evolved into something more livable .... to me the population density for the official population just isn't high enough to support that.    At least not without assuming almost as many sinless as sinners.  (All IMO)

Not really all that unbelievable. Who is going to build this infrastructure?

The State?
Corps?
Private investors?

The State doesn't have the money to deal with urban infrastructure on that level. The State relies to tax revenue to fund everything, and with less and less entities (in the legal sense) paying taxes, and more and more demand for those same tax dollars, there just isn't that much left in the coffers for massive urban renewal.

Corps have rebuilt, and done so with Arco blocks, and Corp enclaves, and snazzy office buildings. All for those wageslaves that have earned a nice spot in one of the ivory towers. And NO, this is not where the lowest paid wageslaves live, these a re for the "important people"

Private Investors probably have done some rebuilding, but they are the really small fish, being able to handle at most one or two apartment complexes before their funds are tapped and have to wait for return. (There is a reason why low income housing is State funded.... Private investors can not wait the 5 to 15 years it takes to see a return on low income housing projects, WITHOUT state funding.) Of those built by private investors, most would be condo style pre-sold homes... which require a population with income that can afford a new home.... something that is hard for many people even today. (Fun Experiment for you! Go to your local Land Title office or Archive, and look up what a 1000sq/ft home cost in 1950. Compare that to today. I have in my area. in 1950 a house cost around $15,000 in my area. Now they are $250,000 minimum!)


The simple fact that large amounts of Seattle are slums points to just how dystopian it is out there. It points to collapse of a lot of things I think people here are taking for granted.

There is no more "welfare" or social services network, those died out long ago to Corporate greed and government insolvency. There is no universal health care (Canada) or Obamacare (US).

Heck, with out a SIN, you can not own property, have a bank account, vote, purchase goods legally, Nor do you have national rights and freedoms. At best you are considered an Illegal Alien, at worst you are target practice. (It's not murder to kill someone who doesn't exist. So prove the person I killed existed, show me his birth certificate, his driver's liecense, tax records, employment history - all those things a SIN tracks.....)
<Yes, the above is rather extreme.... but I can see someone out there making that claim. People make stupid claims all the time today.... Freeman Movement, Flat earth society, Affuenza>   


I've seen this type of stuff first hand all over South Africa and the Sudan areas.

While working in Ghana, there were entire parts of cities just falling over. The government just doesn't have the money nor the man power to maintain the crumbling infrastructure, some of it dating back to the 17th and 18th century! The only reason I was there was a private company (which would be a Mega by SR standards) walked in, gave the government a LOT of money for the mineral rights. And even then, they pulled in 8800 workers from all over the world to build and run the mine, cutting the local population right out of the jobs, except for the most menial and labour intensive.

That mine was making over $2,000,000 PER HOUR of operation, every hour, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 350 days a year. (with 15 days shutdown scheduled for maintenance). The Average wage paid to a Ghana citizen? $25 a day for a 12hr shift.... which is $20 more then minimum wage... 

And, given the state of the Ghana government, I have tell you that the royalties paid on those minerals are not being redirected to housing.


Most people coming from Europe or North America have never really seen true poverty, nor governmental corruption or governmental sanctioned discrimination... So what happens when the system fails is very hard for many to comprehend. We have grown used to the comforts that our station has given us. If we want water, we turn on the tap. We want to eat something, we pull it out of the freezer, or go buy it from a store. when we can't find a job, we expect the government to fund us for a limited time (employment insurance).

In MANY parts of the world, getting a drink involves a walk of kilometers, to collect dirty, contaminated, water that has to boiled before you can drink it. If you want a meal, it whatever you can catch, kill, skin, butcher and cook.. or what you can grow... But if you are walking for Kilometers to get water, you're not growing much.  Homes are made from whatever YOU can cobble together. Often times they are wood frames holding up bricks made for animal dung. Sometimes they are mud, and clay if water is readily available. There is NO electricity, or plumbing, or refrigeration.

I have been offered CHILDREN for purchase for my pocket change in some of these countries. Simply because my pocket change would feed the rest of his family for a month! Racism and Ethic lines are far more pronounced, and that doesn't even consider the caste systems many of these places still hold to... I have seen people detained and lead away to their probable deaths just because of the dialect they speak (not their skin color!)


Trust me, the world is a very fucked up place NOW. Be thankful you live where you live, and have the comforts you enjoy. Because some of the shit out there in the world really doesn't need to be seen, and nor will it stop.

(and now you know why I drink!) 
« Last Edit: <04-18-16/1549:50> by Reaver »
Where am I going? And why am I in a hand basket ???

Remember: You can't fix Stupid. But you can beat on it with a 2x4 until it smartens up! Or dies.

Xexanoth

  • *
  • Chummer
  • **
  • Posts: 117
« Reply #14 on: <04-22-16/1524:36> »
I actually underestimated the damage VITAS did.  I read on the Shadowrun wiki that the first strain killed off billions of people worldwide, with the second strain killing off close to another billion in the 2020s.  Too bad though, because having overpopulation is a staple in a dystopian future.

Quote
Back when overpopulation of the world was a serious
concern, people turned to the mighty soybean as a
promising food source.
Thanks to several global plagues and ecological
disasters, world population is not quite as big a concern
as the amount of arable land on the planet, but the net
result is the same.
Page 41,Food. Core Rulebook.

Shadowrun instead has diseases that wipe everyone out or turn them into the undead....pretty sure thats not any better.  :D