[Senko]

I thought that was 1% globably so even if country A has 4% and country B 0% they're just averaged out over the worldwide population so it overall works out to 1%

[Rosa]

Yes, but if it can actually go up to 4% in some countries, then that pretty much shows that it can "potentially" go that high anywhere. There are of course many reasons why it doesn't in some Places and as i said for game purposes, they will stick with the ca. 1% for the foreseeable future. It seems very much like that the go to explanation for why some Places have higher than average and some have lower than average is predominantly cultural in every case so far.

[Fizzygoo]

Can anyone give a source for the higher that 1% magically capable populations in various countries?

All I could find so far was;

Asamando "Nearly thirty percent of the citizens are magicians from various traditions, but because they are also ghouls..." Street Grimoire (5th edition, pg 13).

and

Aztlan "I read somewhere that maybe 1 percent of the population has any magical "talent" at all. Because Aztechnology goes to such great lengths to hire magically adept security personnel, the incidence of magic use in the ACS [Aztechnologyc Corporate Security] is closer to 2 percent. (This figure is somewhere between a conservative estimate and a wild-hooped guess.)" posted by Argent. Aztlan (2nd edition, pg 74).

I could not find in the Aztlan sourcebook anything saying that 2% of the population of Aztlan was magically active/capable. 

Well if you have countries where the number of awakened in the general population goes as high as 3-4% ( which we have, the different awakened nationas mostly ), then that pretty much shows that the 1,0 % or 1,01 or whatever it is in 2075 is not a hard cap, so maybe the number of potentially magically capable people in the population hasn't gone up, but the 1% is far from the actual number of magically capable people in the population. But for game purposes that number will stay pretty much the same globally speaking.

It's a hard cap within the statement "1% of the world population is magically capable." The best that society (the general world's societies together) can do is maximize to that hard cap. If it is maximized past 1% then the world population of magically capable people is no longer 1% (the original figure is then found to be false). But if you have sources for the "as high as 3-4%" claim, and it can be determined that within those countries those high numbers fit within a global norm (and are not due to immigration of awakened populations, mana spikes, forced expression (like getting infected with HMHVV), or other non-'natural' expressions of magic capability), then that definitely would be evidence that the 1% figure is wrong.

But until that can be examined then, within canon, Senko is probably correct in saying "it overall works out to 1%" and that anywhere where the percentages are higher it is likely due to recruitment (as in the ACS), immigration (NAN nations attracting Shaman traditions, Asamando attracting ghouls), or other factors (Asamando infecting local populations).

There's also the question for me of whether that increasing number mentioned is an increase in the numbers of magically capable people or the numbers of fully trained/actively capable magicians or part thereof. That is 2050 magic potential = 1%, 2070 magic potential = 3% vs 2050 magic potential = 1%/trained = 0.01%, 2070 magic potential = 1%/trained = 0.03%. If you see what I mean the percentage of magically capable individuals hasn't increased but the amount inside that who are found and tained has.

Totally agree. The quote is ""According to the 2055 World Census, the percentage of magically active persons in the world rose .43 percent..." so on the surface, it says nothing about trained and seems to only be talking about "magically active." Plus, how reliable is the 2055 World Census? It's my understanding that the "deeper" into the 6th World we go, mana levels increase. So I would assume (but still an assumption on my part) that the number of magically capable people is and will be rising each year and, as metahumanity gets better at understanding it, the numbers of "trained" magically capable people will also rise within the global magically capable population. (Side note: It's the rising mana levels that I've used as the rationalization on why all the various Adepts from 1st/2nd edition got "smeared out" into just Full Magicians, Aspected, Mystic Adepts, and Adepts, and that by the year 3000 or so, all metahumans will have at least a 1 Magic Attribute.)

[Reaver]

Note on the mana cycles: each cycle takes approximately 5600 years to complete.

We entered into the 6th world on 2011, so we are only 60 years into 5600 cycle, and assuming a sine wave curve, 2740 years from a mana peak.....

So don't expect that 1% figure to be changing any time soon.

[Fizzygoo]

Note on the mana cycles: each cycle takes approximately 5600 years to complete.

Closer to 5125 years

and assuming a sine wave curve

Yeah, that's what I assume too, but mana spikes (Halley's Comet, the mini-Awakening of around 1500s Europe (I forget the specifics there), etc.) throw wrenches into it. But still, with a sine wave...the slope of the curve (the rate of change) is highest at the beginnings and endings.

So don't expect that 1% figure to be changing any time soon.

With that give 0.43 percent rate of growth given from the Awakenings, assuming it's static (though recognizing if it's a sine wave it would aproach 0% growth at the apex of the cycle) and assuming it's 1% in 2055, then...

2055 AD: 1% population magically active
2100 AD: 1.2%
2200 AD: 1.8%
2300 AD: 2.9%
2400 AD: 4.4%
2500 AD: 6.7%
2600 AD: 10.4%
2700 AD: 15.9%
2800 AD: 24.5%
2900 AD: 37.6%
3000 AD: 57.7%
3100 AD: 88.6%
3174 AD: ~100%

...Again, that's assuming constant growth, instead of tapering off via a true sine wave then with

by the year 3000 or so, all metahumans will have at least a 1 Magic Attribute.)

I'm definitely not expecting the 1% figure to change (much) any time soon

[Medicineman]

>>>> I'm definitely not expecting the 1% figure to change (much) any time soon
not if SR6 plays in 2188

I never read that different Countries have different ratios of Awakened but I'm totally going to adapt that Idea .
(especially the Tirs and Pomorya will have a higher Rate of awakened and the Troll Republic of Black Forrest in the ADL)
Thanks

HougH!
Medicineman

[Senko]

Note on the mana cycles: each cycle takes approximately 5600 years to complete.

Closer to 5125 years

and assuming a sine wave curve

Yeah, that's what I assume too, but mana spikes (Halley's Comet, the mini-Awakening of around 1500s Europe (I forget the specifics there), etc.) throw wrenches into it. But still, with a sine wave...the slope of the curve (the rate of change) is highest at the beginnings and endings.

So don't expect that 1% figure to be changing any time soon.

With that give 0.43 percent rate of growth given from the Awakenings, assuming it's static (though recognizing if it's a sine wave it would aproach 0% growth at the apex of the cycle) and assuming it's 1% in 2055, then...

2055 AD: 1% population magically active
2100 AD: 1.2%
2200 AD: 1.8%
2300 AD: 2.9%
2400 AD: 4.4%
2500 AD: 6.7%
2600 AD: 10.4%
2700 AD: 15.9%
2800 AD: 24.5%
2900 AD: 37.6%
3000 AD: 57.7%
3100 AD: 88.6%
3174 AD: ~100%

...Again, that's assuming constant growth, instead of tapering off via a true sine wave then with

by the year 3000 or so, all metahumans will have at least a 1 Magic Attribute.)

I'm definitely not expecting the 1% figure to change (much) any time soon

Hmmm I'm not so sure awakened population would ever reach 100% even when Earthdawn was at the height of its power (horror invasion) and part of a combined universe there wasn't 100% awakening. Personally I'd think it more likely as you get a higher and higher background count you'd get more magically dependant races lamia's, naga's, changelings, harpies, etc and more mystic adepts (or some combination of adept/mage/technomancer) and fewer aspected magicians but you'd never be likely to see even 10% global awakened population.

[Rosa]

I think i saw a number once putting the number of adepts in Eartdawn at 10%, i'll try to hunt Down the source. Also i'll try to hunt Down the sources for SR, might take a while since there's a lot of books to look through. One book i'm sure of though is the unfortunately finished but never officially published Shadows of Latin America. In that book Amazonia and Paraguay are put at the 3-4%, Aztlan around the 2% if i recall correctly and i think Ecuador might have been mentioned as having a slightly higher than average number of awakened. I'll go back an check the other books i can think of that have the information.

[Reaver]

Keep in mind Amazonia has a very high percentage of Shifters, AND by Amazonia law, they are full citizens, which would skew their numbers. (Remember, Shifters are not metahumans, but awakened animals)

The book WAR! Touches on this a fair bit when talking about troops and tactics throughout the book.

[MijRai]

Eh, that probably doesn't skew the numbers too much, Reaver.  While they have a lot of shifters, the worldwide population of shifters isn't above 250,000 (as of Run Faster).  Assuming every single Shapeshifter in the world lived there, that'd be 1 in 1,000 (population of 250,000,000 as per Sixth World Almanac). And not all of them are fully Awakened past their natural Magic Attribute. 

[Fizzygoo]

Hmmm I'm not so sure awakened population would ever reach 100% even when Earthdawn was at the height of its power (horror invasion) and part of a combined universe there wasn't 100% awakening. Personally I'd think it more likely as you get a higher and higher background count you'd get more magically dependant races lamia's, naga's, changelings, harpies, etc and more mystic adepts (or some combination of adept/mage/technomancer) and fewer aspected magicians but you'd never be likely to see even 10% global awakened population.

My bad, for some reason in my head I translated a bunch of the in game flavor text of Earthdawn, the "magic is in everything" bit, as everything is technically awakened/the equivalent of having a positive non-zero Magic Attribute (and the majority still not being "trained" in magic's uses).

Here's some of the parts that make me interpret Earthdawn as the equivalent everyone having a Magic attribute and, with training, can then "use" magic:

* OCC "The world of Earthdawn is filled with magic. The most talented characters, including yours, are initiated in the use of magic. Such characters are called Adepts. Some Adepts train to cast spells, some train to use swords or other weapons, others train to work with animals. The form of magical training chosen by your character is his or her Discipline. This training focuses the magical energies of your character into special abilities called Talents." Earthdawn core book (1st ed, pg 36)
* OOC "[Magic] is the source of the characters' abilities... Magic is a part of everyday life in Earthdawn. It is used to light villages and towns at night..." ibid pg 136
* IC "...magic is such a fundamental part of our daily existence that it pervades our every thought and action." ibid pg 139
* IC "Our world is alive with magical energy, which is ordered into patterns...Any being that wants to use magical energy to cast spells or use talents and other magical abilities must form a tiny part of the magical energy of the world into a pattern. " ibid pg 140
* IC "The act of Naming is important in our world because it focuses the world's magical forces into a True Pattern. From that moment on the Named person, place, or thing is important in the world. Naming only occurs in the conjunction with the interaction of magic and a person, place, or thing. Magic can be introduced deliberately, through a talent, spell, ritual (suh as a Weaponsmith's Forge Weapon talent, or a child's coming-of-age Naming ritual..." ibid 140.

Since Earthdawn (at least 1st ed) doesn't have a Magic Attribute equivalent to Shadowrun and that essentially with proper training anyone can manipulate magic (according to the training) then my assumption would be that nearly 100% are magically capable but, as you say Senko & Rosa, only 10% reach the heroic Adept levels (though I didn't find a source to that 10% figure, but, interestingly, would match Shadowrun's 10:1 ratio of magically capable to magically trained full magicians).

I think i saw a number once putting the number of adepts in Eartdawn at 10%, i'll try to hunt Down the source. Also i'll try to hunt Down the sources for SR, might take a while since there's a lot of books to look through. One book i'm sure of though is the unfortunately finished but never officially published Shadows of Latin America. In that book Amazonia and Paraguay are put at the 3-4%, Aztlan around the 2% if i recall correctly and i think Ecuador might have been mentioned as having a slightly higher than average number of awakened. I'll go back an check the other books i can think of that have the information.

That'd be awesome for the sources, Rosa, thank you . I did a search of the Shadows of Latin America book, just searched the document on the following (without the quotes): "2%", "3%", "4%", "2 percent", "3 percent", "4 percent", "two percent", "three percent", "four percent",  "double", "triple", "three times", and "four times".

The only thing that came up was about the Aztlan priesthood and that the runner Deprogrammer comments "the percentage of magically active [priests of the Path of the Sun] sits at 24 percent and is rising; much higher than in other sectors or in other religious organizations." (Shadows of Latin America v. 1.2, pg 60).

And I didn't seen anything when I quickly scanned the Paraguay section.

[Rosa]

I'll see if i can find the actual quote.

[Rosa]

Oops wrong country, it was a P country though. "In the the Peruvian jungle the incidence of metatype non-human births is 4,85 times higher than the World average........Awakened births are estimated to be 3 times higher than average...." ( Shadows of Latin America p. 118 ).

So thats the first source quote, i'll continue to hunt for the others.

And for Aztlan....."It's not just the priesthood. The percentage of magically-active population in Aztlan is higher than the World average and amongs the highest concentrations on the Globe" ( SoLA p. 61 ). No actual number though 

[Fizzygoo]

Nice! Thank's Rosa. I didn't search on "3 times" and there it is. The final sentence to Smiling Bandit's comment is now what we're hanging on, "Currently studies are being conducted to verify if the superior mana levels in the Amazonian jungle is related to these birth trends." (SoLA v 1.2, pg 118).

And yeah, too bad Mad Libbie doesn't give numbers (or other runners comment to clarify).

Great catches, thanks again!

[Hobbes]

I'll see if i can find the actual quote.

Remember the Earthdawn setting was on the tail end of the curve, so its not the peak of magical population.