Shadowrun
Shadowrun General => General Discussion => Topic started by: aono on <08-03-16/0642:48>
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I noticed strange thing.
In 2ed "Tir Tairngire" book it shows that Tir Tairngire population was 5,610,000, excluding every one who wasn't a subject (that's official numbers, and Tir authorities just didn't count SINless.
And we have 5,001,000 in "The Land of Promise", with estimated SINless, and 4,803,000 in "Six World Almanac".
What do you think? Did Tir Tairngire lost almost million (1/6 of full population) citizens in and after the coup, and stays economically stable after such losses (for compassion, it's like USA lost 53 millions), or it's just mistake?
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Well, between secret police and terrorists/rebels, there were certainly some people who got killed. And as you said, they just don't count the SINless. Remember that the coup happened at the same time as the Crash, and a lot of businesses went under, leaving any corporate citizens SINless. And then there's records that would get wiped in the crash, and over a decade of rich elves driving through poor meta areas to play whack-an-ork for fun. And then terrorists who didn't like how the coup fell out. And then there were people who left once restrictions dropped. And...
Well, lets just say that there were a lot of things going on at the time.
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Thing is current population numbers ARE including SINless.
With Tir Tairngire habit to limit corporate influence (I believe it was 7% for megacorps influence in Tir economy, and Tairngire don't sign that corporate charter grants corporates their sweet extraterritoriality), I don't believe corporate citizens will be major impact too.
Also it wasn't a problem to leave old Tir. You had some problems with exporting a capital (55000 nuyen in a year, excluding your real estates cost, car and 50% of business), but let's face it it's not more serious as in 60th Britain; also it's not such a problem in the world with global bank system. Everybody who wanted to leave a country because he was poor and insignificant did it already to the moment of the coup - and let's face it coup didn't make lifes of remaining low-status worse. Thousands gain their citizenships after the coup. There are a lot of rich emigrants, of course, but they were a minority.
Also after coup immigration TO Tir happens too, with weakend barriers.
So yeah, I believe it was kind of troubles. But a million?..
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Land of Promise is more recent than the Almanac.
The Almanac was during the crashing point, where you had an Elven Refugee Crisis. Compare it to modern Syrian, which had 17 million before the civil war, and now has some 2.5 million refugees outside and unknown numbers of dead... but that's still a sixth of the country that flat-out bailed. The general Elven Revolution was faster and not as bloody as Syria, but it was comparable in many ways.
Of course, the end result is that the non-Elves were the majority of the uprising, sweeping a bunch of Elves into the mix that were furious about the chance for elevation being removed, the Old Guard was tossed out ... and the Elven majority went, "Well, the problem wasn't the *nation* ... we're still awesome and Elves are totes the best. The problem was just the people who were sitting at the big table. SO! New Elves take over, everyone else go home, taa!"
And that left the non-Elven underclass boiling with betrayal and rage. But the new Elven masters had been brought inside the loop, so knew the revolutionary leaders, secret meeting places, and so on, and quickly dismantled the ringleaders before a second revolution could open up. (Dance Dance COUNTER Revolution!)
Rusty did a lot of research about population displacement for that one, sitting down with some university professors to figure it out. I give him mad props for going so deep just for demographics.
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Yeah, I thought about Syria. Cities bombed, armies went here and there, all kinds of modern warfare but nuclear used. It's kind of catastrophy for Syria. Also we can recall Serbia in WW1 - they lost a sixth part of population and they feel it even today, after a century. In said WW1 UK lost 702K soldiers and 3K civilians - and it was kind of shock for their economics.
But Tir was able to stand up, restore an economy in a couple of years, and even set tourism as a big part of their budget. I believe Syria wasn't able to invite a lot of tourists soon enough. The one thing that changed - they made Prince Council electable (oh yes, they also added some weight to Star Chamber). A land described in a "Land of Promise" don't looks like a land that had a major catastrophy with 1/6 of population lost just 10 years before.
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I noticed strange thing.
In 2ed "Tir Tairngire" book it shows that Tir Tairngire population was 5,610,000, excluding every one who wasn't a subject (that's official numbers, and Tir authorities just didn't count SINless.
And we have 5,001,000 in "The Land of Promise", with estimated SINless, and 4,803,000 in "Six World Almanac".
What do you think? Did Tir Tairngire lost almost million (1/6 of full population) citizens in and after the coup, and stays economically stable after such losses (for compassion, it's like USA lost 53 millions), or it's just mistake?
Not to be pedantic, but you're inflating your numbers on the order of around 50% -- you're saying 1-in-6 and it's really more like 1-in-9.
Still a bit hit, but nowhere near as bad as you're making it out.
-Jn-
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Let's remind that Shadows of North America provided an intermediate number.
Tir Tairngire: 5,610,000 in 2054
Shadows of North America: 5,010,000 in 2062
Sixth World Almanac: 4,803,000 in 2072
The Land of Promise: 5,001,000 in 2074
So that gives an average yearly growth rate of -1,4% between 2054 and 2062, -0,42% between 2062 and 2072, and +2,04% between 2072 and 2074. So the biggest drop took place well before the 2064 coup.
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Not to be pedantic, but you're inflating your numbers on the order of around 50% -- you're saying 1-in-6 and it's really more like 1-in-9.
I have in mind that Tir Tairngire statistics don't include SINless at all, they just didn't admit their existence; also that numbers don't include classless.
But if we take this numbers as a truth, then 1/6 from 5,610,000 will be 935,000. 1/7 will be 801.000. And we have 807,000 as a difference between "Tir Tairngire" and "Sixth World Almanac"; so it's maybe more like 1-in-7, yeah. But 1-in-9 we have in "Land of Promise" only.
But if we take in mind that 5,610,000 is a number of subjects only, and current estimate of SINless is 7%, than, given that number of SINless didn't rise up (and as I read Storm Front, it's didn't - quite the opposite, a lot of SINless get citizenship), we have something around 6 millions real population in 2054.
Let's remind that Shadows of North America provided an intermediate number.
Thanks, I missed it!
Again, SoNA included SINless numbers (official statistics of Tir Tairngire under Surehand didn't included per capita income and deny povetry). So it's 4,600,000 subjects in 2062. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED BETWEEN 2054 AND 2062? Syria-like civil war, with tanks storming cities?
Also we have persistent estimates for protesters in 2063 as "millions". I believed it can be exaggeration in one place, but it's repeated every time they speaks about that protests. So it's, I don't know, half a population goes to street? One third?
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Between 54 and 62?
Off the top of my head, 3 Mt. Shasta incursions that did not end well. (Never does when you mess with a great Dragon!). A low level terrorist movement to remove the elites. A low level war fought against Saito and CalFree. Civil strife. Emmigrantion.
All those things lead to de-population, especially when you limit immigration, and the standard of living is much higher next door.
A better way to look at it is City Depopulation. There are many cities in the US that are shrinking (some quickly!) as the economies of those cities no longer have the jobs to support their residents (Detroit is a good example).
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Off the top of my head, 3 Mt. Shasta incursions that did not end well. (Never does when you mess with a great Dragon!).
It's 2053. So situation described in "Tir Tairngire" happens after war for Shasta Dam.
But thing is... well. If all that factors can put a depopulation such as Detroit's one (even if we waive out that city depopulation has very different mechanisms as country depopulation), that's a kind of civil war there. Something near Syrian civil war. But every source about fighting with Rinelle ke’Tesrae says about "hundreds of arrests and some deaths". It's not a civil war.
Also I'm not so sure about much higher living standard. Tir living standards in 2062 (and it's definitly said it's fallen a lot!) are: 25 000 nuyen per capita, 26% povetry, 8% SINless (just in case - it's number of people who haven't any civil rights/privilegies), 94% educated population (more than 12 years).
CalFree have little better income per capita (28 000), but same level of povetry (27%), 32% SINless and 66% education level. Oh yeah, and it's war there.
Siux are something better with depressed Tir - 22 500 nuyen per capita, 21% povetry, 15% SINless and 92% education level.
Salish-Sidhe - 26 000 nuyen per capita, 20% povetry, 15% SINless, 93% education level.
UCAS - 28 000 nuyen per capita, 26% povetry, 30% SINless (yeah, 30% of UCAS population haven't any civil rights; when you notice it, a noble indignation mostly-UCAS-based shadowtalk gives about Tir's despoty seems kinda amusing), 83% education level.
So, highly depressed Tir became with the same living standard as his neighbourhood on it's lowest point. Where all that residents who can't find a job go, where can they take a better life (it's mostly elves, I should notice)? In Tsimshian or elven ghetto of Seattle?
And this leaves simple question. Yeah, states can fall, I know it. But how that low-level magically became this: "as you all know, the Tír now boasts the fastest growing economy in North America. Even more important, repeated surveys show that Tír citizens consider their nation to be “stable, prosperous, full of opportunities, and a place where metahumans and nature live in harmony.” Outside the Tír, the country is a top-ranked tourist destination (and tourist nuyen has been a huge part in restoring the country’s economy) and several of the cities, such as Portland, Salem, and Bend have held “best places to live in North America” titles for several years running now."
Take your Detroit example - that city is bankrupt. That's kind of normal. Tir isn't bankrupt, quite the opposite.
Is magical power of representative democracy WITHOUT social reform (Tir classes stays, Tir bias against non-elves stays, Tir nobles retain their money) did it? There is assumptions that some AAA-corps (as Horizon) put their money into Tir to make it more corp-friendly - well, Tir didn't even sign Business Recognition Accords.
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Well. Take for what it is.
Or change it to suit your tastes.
Wak already told you the lengths Rusty went through to get an accurate estimate of what would have/could have happened.
So.... are you arguing against his research and interviews? If that is the case, then do your own reasearch to refute it.... but your not going to find it here amongst the plebs
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Don't have Land of Promise, but how is the racial distribution compared to that in the Tir handbook?
Knowing more about the Metahuman makeup of the missing million may explain some of the why.
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Don't have Land of Promise, but how is the racial distribution compared to that in the Tir handbook?
Knowing more about the Metahuman makeup of the missing million may explain some of the why.
Yeah, it'll be a fun combination of Elves deciding to beat feet while the getting's good, assets being smuggled out, undesirables 'vanishing', quite a few people bailing when the economy tanked, and so on. Before it got enough for the rebellion to break out, there was still a LOT of grousing. The big breaking point was when the Trials of Ascension were suspended; that's when the middle class started to link hands with the underclass over being mistreated.
Of course, they then tossed them under the bus after the revolution ended. Because Elves. :D
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Don't have Land of Promise, but how is the racial distribution compared to that in the Tir handbook?
Tir Tairngire:
Human: 1%
Elf: 85%
Dwarf: 7%
Ork: 5%
Troll: Negligible
Other: 2%
The Land of Promise:
Human: 3%
Elf: 78%
Dwarf: 8%
Ork: 9%
Troll: 1%
Other: 1%
If you include SINless (7%), even existence of that was denied by old statistics, and take into account that, by Tir Tairngire, most of them was non-elves, it's kinda normal. Nothing really changed, and so it's claimed by shadowtalk.
Well. It's the same shadowtalk who feels good to blame Tir for inequality, and who don't notice that 30% of UCAS population are literally rightless, so I'd not take their opinion as last point.
Of course, they then tossed them under the bus after the revolution ended. Because Elves.
Thing is in a land with 80% elven population every mass movement will be elven. If you're going to take "millions" on the street (millions are at least 2, right?) in a five million nation, you can take literally EVERY ONE non-elf here and take at least one million of elves as well.
By the way in such a land having 5 of 13 high rulers as non-elves (old Tir numbers) is really non-representative. Damn, theoretically "representatives" of non-elves (including one dragon) was more than half needed to ban High Prince. True representative numbers should be something around 2 or 3 non-elven princes. Ok, old Tir Prince Council never claimed to be really "representative".
Intresting enough that tossed non-elven minorities have Zaitan, Hestaby, Rex, Foster, Demarco, Jaeger. It's again 5 from 13 in 80%-elven nation, or, if it's better, it's 10 voices from 18 (High Prince voice counted as 5) - and it's by elections, not by appointment. I'd say not bad for tossed minority.
Well. It WAS. Current, Telestrian Council looks more as "representative" one.
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Rusty did a lot of research about population displacement for that one, sitting down with some university professors to figure it out. I give him mad props for going so deep just for demographics.
Wak already told you the lengths Rusty went through to get an accurate estimate of what would have/could have happened.
So.... are you arguing against his research and interviews? If that is the case, then do your own reasearch to refute it....
I don't get it. What R. Zimmeman wrote in The Land of Promise is an increase in population (+2% per year). Or did he research about population displacement to decide if he was going to retcon the whole thing, ultimately finding the previous drops were fine?
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I'm not sure (I'm kinda new here), but I believe Rusty is Rusty Childers, author and proofreader for Sixth World Almanac.
Also I'm not sure how he did his research (at least SWA doesn't include it, nor it should), which questions did he asked college proffesors, and which answers did he got, so I can't really attack his research, I've never seen it. But he named OLD TIR as a land with "liberal immigration policies", so I believe he just ignored some facts didn't fit into some pattern.
Just because if we're speaking about Zimmeman here, who wrote "Land of Promise"... well. Maybe he have done good research, but he deliberatly removed from that 24-page supplement ANY information about some factors really mattered for demographics. First 10 or so pages are about geography and "how to get there", history ("what really happened there") and economics ("how it's impacted") are not skipped, but demonstratively skipped, then it's kind of some shadowtalk about 13 persons, and little shadowtalk about "hey, nothing really changed here". Then it's 4 pages about game info.
Why doing a lot of research about demography if you don't use it then?
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Hi all,
First off, forgive Wak for being casual. I go by "Russell" when I'm writing, but "Rusty" in day-to-day stuff. I'm Russell/Rusty Zimmerman, not Rusty Childers. I promise.
Second, as has already been pointed out, Land of Promise -- the only one in the Tir Tairngire series of demographics that I worked on -- actually shows a population increase, not decrease.
Third, I talked to some poli-sci and history folks about it, yeah. But, to clarify, that's because my office was right down the hall from theirs, and we ate lunch together about once a week anyways. ;) I'm not sure how it turned into me doing extensive research and multiple interviews, but I want to nip that in the bud. All I did was talk to some buddies on campus. I wanted to get a few ideas about how quickly I could get populations back up, because I, frankly, agree with you that their "low point" was a bit too low. I wanted to restore stability (in-game) and playability (out-of-game) to the setting, and getting the population to level off seemed like a handy way to do that; to show a dramatic increase from that low point, to still not be a nation fully recovered (and back to original TT levels) but rather one still scarred by years of harsh internal policing, but to clearly be a nation on the rise. So, yeah, I explained a few things to a few buddies from elsewhere within the department, had them crib me up some ideas about how quickly populations might recover from that sort of thing, averaged out their two answers, and went with what ended up being almost a nice, round, five million.
Fourth? As for what was "demonstratively skipped," and what went into the book? Frankly, you're the first person in all the time since release -- which is what, three or four years, now? I'm a little brain-fried from the GenCon drive, sorry -- that's even mentioned the demographics, much less that's said "Man, I sure do wish someone had given me more back-tracking story info, and less about the now to work with, play with, and run a game with."
My job, and my goal, was to make the Tir playable again. I wanted to let folks get thrown back into it, and to introduce them to a new generation of Tir Princes (except ones that aren't immortal and thousands of years old, this time, but, rather, ones that actual players might actually interact with and work for and maybe even challenge without it being an auto-death, which was the "some kind of shadowtalk about 13 persons"). Land of Promise didn't have the budget or the roominess of a 165 or 175 page sourcebook. It was initially supposed to be the supplementary text to a series of adventures (basically just an expanded GM packet to the Elven Blood Missions arc), but I lobbied to extend it into a purchasable e-book format, and basically just added to it and added to it until The Powers That Be made it available as an update to the prior books. An update, not a replacement.
I'm sorry if you don't like the final result, but I can assure you, the last thing I did was "remove" anything.
Lastly, I think that if you take too hard a look at any of the demographics info -- in basically any Shadowrun product, from any edition -- you'll find you're running into some problems. We used to call this sort of thing "FASAnomics" and laugh about how silly the Shadowrun and Battletech universes were, and the plain reality is that it's all still pretty silly. At the end of the day, you write up numbers that make sense for the story you're trying to tell and the setting you're trying to describe, and that's that.
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Thanks for that answer, and I believe I shoud clarify myself.
Thing is, I'm really kinda new here, and when I saw "Rusty" name, who made an extensive research I don't belive it's about you (or about Land of Promise). Land of Promise don't looks like as a product of an extensive research about demographics.
Not it must be! 6WA looks like demography almanac, so it's kinda understandable to expect a people who wrote it to do some extensive research; I have issues, but I hadn't such issues about Land of Promise. I am not trying to accuse you for Land of Promise isn't really demography paper, it's normal, it definitly wasn't an idea.
But I'm kinda gullible in such topics. If somebody tells me that author of some work worked around some topic (said demography) I believe him. But I saw Land of Promise! It's easy to notice that economics and politics (with exclusion for princes persons) are deliberatly skipped, and it's pointed they are skipped. Then I say it's not seems like a result of very thorough demographical work and it's good to know it's really isn't a result of very thorough demographical work.
"> Skipping around a lot, aren’t we?
> Slamm-0!
> What, like you’re really interested in history and economics all of a sudden?
> /dev/grrl"
It's not mean that researches wasn't done, it's just means there are not any of them in this book. Personally I believe it's not good decision, not because demographics are important. They, well, are, but you need a skill to throw such data into game; I'm sociologist (by education), player who is trying to create Tir character is IR college professor, it's kinda of professional for me and him (yeah, we ARE really intrested in history and economics). But it could be good - for gameplay, not to please mine or my player curiousity - not to drop history section, and put an explanation WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED in Tir Revolution, I mean, this stuff stayed behind the scene, and it's not very good. Same for, I don't know, economics - it's good to have a couple of words about how it's work now, after Revolution, did it changed or not. But it's personal tastes, not more. You can't put anything into 24-pages pamphlet, I know it, and I don't demand it. It can be good to have such info, for me, for players I played with, for some players who whined about "waaaa, how little we know about modern Tir" (I met such whining when I tried to find such info in Net), but it's personal tastes, and if there was a 24-page pamphlet about economics and demography there should be players who will whine about lack of personal descriptions for princes.
My replic about "shadowtalk about 13 persons" wasn't degratory, and sorry if it looks that way. It was an effort to show what IS in this book (shadowtalk about 13 persons) and what ISN'T (info about demography and economics), and it's raised up because someone - not me! - pointed that there was a deep research about demographics just for demographics. I believed, to be honest, it's not so deep (and thanks for saying this), and I believed it's not something you can find in this book.
But it's my point here. I can't find an answer in the books so I sum my problems and came to forum. I believe if I wanted to say "hey Rusty wrote bad bad book!!!", I could do it on book page in drivethrurpg.com or find your contacts and drop it on you directly. I saw something I believe is strange in info about Tir in a sources from 2nd ed book to modern supplements, I couldn't find an answer myself, so I came to forums with a question about Tir demography, not about quality of "Land of Promise" book. I really believed it's why forums existed at all.
As a part of answers (and yeah, it's forums for me, I know) I had comparissing to modern Syria (ahm), to modern Detroit (ahm), and an offer not to argue your extensive research in a faith. Extensive research you didn't made.
And once again - I don't blame you! My English isn't so good I want it to be, so I want to reassure here - really, no any sarcasm here or "yeah, we know it's hard job only chosen can do, so who can expect". I really believe you could to do such research (you have history major after all, right?), if it was your point; I just believed it wasn't, until Wak said so.
So yeah. I believe it's... yeah, let's take "FASAnomics" term (I should notice though I LOVE '93 Tir book). It's normal, I can change it if I want. Believe me I will or I'll try to find an explanation that will not feels bad for me or my players - it's my DM job after all.
But it was exactly as I asked - is it "FASAnomics" or do you believe there is a sensible explanation.