[aono]

I noticed strange thing.
In 2ed "Tir Tairngire" book it shows that Tir Tairngire population was 5,610,000, excluding every one who wasn't a subject (that's official numbers, and Tir authorities just didn't count SINless.
And we have 5,001,000 in "The Land of Promise", with estimated SINless, and 4,803,000 in "Six World Almanac".
What do you think? Did Tir Tairngire lost almost million (1/6 of full population) citizens in and after the coup, and stays economically stable after such losses (for compassion, it's like USA lost 53 millions), or it's just mistake?

[Mirikon]

Well, between secret police and terrorists/rebels, there were certainly some people who got killed. And as you said, they just don't count the SINless. Remember that the coup happened at the same time as the Crash, and a lot of businesses went under, leaving any corporate citizens SINless. And then there's records that would get wiped in the crash, and over a decade of rich elves driving through poor meta areas to play whack-an-ork for fun. And then terrorists who didn't like how the coup fell out. And then there were people who left once restrictions dropped. And...

Well, lets just say that there were a lot of things going on at the time.

[aono]

Thing is current population numbers ARE including SINless.
With Tir Tairngire habit to limit corporate influence (I believe it was 7% for megacorps influence in Tir economy, and Tairngire don't sign that corporate charter grants corporates their sweet extraterritoriality), I don't believe corporate citizens will be major impact too.
Also it wasn't a problem to leave old Tir. You had some problems with exporting a capital (55000 nuyen in a year, excluding your real estates cost, car and 50% of business), but let's face it it's not more serious as in 60th Britain; also it's not such a problem in the world with global bank system. Everybody who wanted to leave a country because he was poor and insignificant did it already to the moment of the coup - and let's face it coup didn't make lifes of remaining low-status worse. Thousands gain their citizenships after the coup. There are a lot of rich emigrants, of course, but they were a minority.
Also after coup immigration TO Tir happens too, with weakend barriers.

So yeah, I believe it was kind of troubles. But a million?..

[Wakshaani]

Land of Promise is more recent than the Almanac.

The Almanac was during the crashing point, where you had an Elven Refugee Crisis. Compare it to modern Syrian, which had 17 million before the civil war, and now has some 2.5 million refugees outside and unknown numbers of dead... but that's still a sixth of the country that flat-out bailed. The general Elven Revolution was faster and not as bloody as Syria, but it was comparable in many ways.

Of course, the end result is that the non-Elves were the majority of the uprising, sweeping a bunch of Elves into the mix that were furious about the chance for elevation being removed, the Old Guard was tossed out ... and the Elven majority went, "Well, the problem wasn't the *nation* ... we're still awesome and Elves are totes the best. The problem was just the people who were sitting at the big table. SO! New Elves take over, everyone else go home, taa!"

And that left the non-Elven underclass boiling with betrayal and rage. But the new Elven masters had been brought inside the loop, so knew the revolutionary leaders, secret meeting places, and so on, and quickly dismantled the ringleaders before a second revolution could open up. (Dance Dance COUNTER Revolution!)

Rusty did a lot of research about population displacement for that one, sitting down with some university professors to figure it out. I give him mad props for going so deep just for demographics.

[aono]

Yeah, I thought about Syria. Cities bombed, armies went here and there, all kinds of modern warfare but nuclear used. It's kind of catastrophy for Syria. Also we can recall Serbia in WW1 - they lost a sixth part of population and they feel it even today, after a century. In said WW1 UK lost 702K soldiers and 3K civilians - and it was kind of shock for their economics.
But Tir was able to stand up, restore an economy in a couple of years, and even set tourism as a big part of their budget. I believe Syria wasn't able to invite a lot of tourists soon enough. The one thing that changed - they made Prince Council electable (oh yes, they also added some weight to Star Chamber). A land described in a "Land of Promise" don't looks like a land that had a major catastrophy with 1/6 of population lost just 10 years before.

[JoeNapalm]

I noticed strange thing.
In 2ed "Tir Tairngire" book it shows that Tir Tairngire population was 5,610,000, excluding every one who wasn't a subject (that's official numbers, and Tir authorities just didn't count SINless.
And we have 5,001,000 in "The Land of Promise", with estimated SINless, and 4,803,000 in "Six World Almanac".
What do you think? Did Tir Tairngire lost almost million (1/6 of full population) citizens in and after the coup, and stays economically stable after such losses (for compassion, it's like USA lost 53 millions), or it's just mistake?

Not to be pedantic, but you're inflating your numbers on the order of around 50% -- you're saying 1-in-6 and it's really more like 1-in-9.

Still a bit hit, but nowhere near as bad as you're making it out.

-Jn-

[Nath]

Let's remind that Shadows of North America provided an intermediate number.

Tir Tairngire: 5,610,000 in 2054
Shadows of North America: 5,010,000 in 2062
Sixth World Almanac: 4,803,000 in 2072
The Land of Promise: 5,001,000 in 2074

So that gives an average yearly growth rate of -1,4% between 2054 and 2062, -0,42% between 2062 and 2072, and +2,04% between 2072 and 2074. So the biggest drop took place well before the 2064 coup.

[aono]

Not to be pedantic, but you're inflating your numbers on the order of around 50% -- you're saying 1-in-6 and it's really more like 1-in-9.

I have in mind that Tir Tairngire statistics don't include SINless at all, they just didn't admit their existence; also that numbers don't include classless.
But if we take this numbers as a truth, then 1/6 from 5,610,000 will be 935,000. 1/7 will be 801.000. And we have 807,000 as a difference between "Tir Tairngire" and "Sixth World Almanac"; so it's maybe more like 1-in-7, yeah. But 1-in-9 we have in "Land of Promise" only.
But if we take in mind that 5,610,000 is a number of subjects only, and current estimate of SINless is 7%, than, given that number of SINless didn't rise up (and as I read Storm Front, it's didn't - quite the opposite, a lot of SINless get citizenship), we have something around 6 millions real population in 2054.

Let's remind that Shadows of North America provided an intermediate number.

Thanks, I missed it!
Again, SoNA included SINless numbers (official statistics of Tir Tairngire under Surehand didn't included per capita income and deny povetry). So it's 4,600,000 subjects in 2062. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED BETWEEN 2054 AND 2062? Syria-like civil war, with tanks storming cities?
Also we have persistent estimates for protesters in 2063 as "millions". I believed it can be exaggeration in one place, but it's repeated every time they speaks about that protests. So it's, I don't know, half a population goes to street? One third?

[Reaver]

Between 54 and 62?

Off the top of my head, 3 Mt. Shasta incursions that did not end well. (Never does when you mess with a great Dragon!). A low level terrorist movement to remove the elites. A low level war fought against Saito and CalFree. Civil strife. Emmigrantion.

All those things lead to de-population, especially when you limit immigration, and the standard of living is much higher next door.

A better way to look at it is City Depopulation. There are many cities in the US that are shrinking (some quickly!) as the economies of those cities no longer have the jobs to support their residents (Detroit is a good example).

[aono]

Off the top of my head, 3 Mt. Shasta incursions that did not end well. (Never does when you mess with a great Dragon!).

It's 2053. So situation described in "Tir Tairngire" happens after war for Shasta Dam.
But thing is... well. If all that factors can put a depopulation such as Detroit's one (even if we waive out that city depopulation has very different mechanisms as country depopulation), that's a kind of civil war there. Something near Syrian civil war. But every source about fighting with Rinelle ke’Tesrae says about "hundreds of arrests and some deaths". It's not a civil war.

Also I'm not so sure about much higher living standard. Tir living standards in 2062 (and it's definitly said it's fallen a lot!) are: 25 000 nuyen per capita, 26% povetry, 8% SINless (just in case - it's number of people who haven't any civil rights/privilegies), 94% educated population (more than 12 years).
CalFree have little better income per capita (28 000), but same level of povetry (27%), 32% SINless and 66% education level. Oh yeah, and it's war there.
Siux are something better with depressed Tir - 22 500 nuyen per capita, 21% povetry, 15% SINless and 92% education level.
Salish-Sidhe - 26 000 nuyen per capita, 20% povetry, 15% SINless, 93% education level.
UCAS - 28 000 nuyen per capita, 26% povetry, 30% SINless (yeah, 30% of UCAS population haven't any civil rights; when you notice it, a noble indignation mostly-UCAS-based shadowtalk gives about Tir's despoty seems kinda amusing), 83% education level.
So, highly depressed Tir became with the same living standard as his neighbourhood on it's lowest point. Where all that residents who can't find a job go, where can they take a better life (it's mostly elves, I should notice)? In Tsimshian or elven ghetto of Seattle?

And this leaves simple question. Yeah, states can fall, I know it. But how that low-level magically became this: "as you all know, the Tír now boasts the fastest growing economy in North America. Even more important, repeated surveys show that Tír citizens consider their nation to be “stable, prosperous, full of opportunities, and a place where metahumans and nature live in harmony.” Outside the Tír, the country is a top-ranked tourist destination (and tourist nuyen has been a huge part in restoring the country’s economy) and several of the cities, such as Portland, Salem, and Bend have held “best places to live in North America” titles for several years running now."
Take your Detroit example - that city is bankrupt. That's kind of normal. Tir isn't bankrupt, quite the opposite.
Is magical power of representative democracy WITHOUT social reform (Tir classes stays, Tir bias against non-elves stays, Tir nobles retain their money) did it? There is assumptions that some AAA-corps (as Horizon) put their money into Tir to make it more corp-friendly - well, Tir didn't even sign Business Recognition Accords.

[Reaver]

Well. Take for what it is.

Or change it to suit your tastes.

Wak already told you the lengths Rusty went through to get an accurate estimate of what would have/could have happened.

So.... are you arguing against his research and interviews? If that is the case, then do your own reasearch to refute it.... but your not going to find it here amongst the plebs

[Sendaz]

Don't have Land of Promise, but how is the racial distribution compared to that in the Tir handbook?

Knowing more about the Metahuman makeup of the missing million may explain some of the why.

[Wakshaani]

Don't have Land of Promise, but how is the racial distribution compared to that in the Tir handbook?

Knowing more about the Metahuman makeup of the missing million may explain some of the why.

Yeah, it'll be a fun combination of Elves deciding to beat feet while the getting's good, assets being smuggled out, undesirables 'vanishing', quite a few people bailing when the economy tanked, and so on. Before it got enough for the rebellion to break out, there was still a LOT of grousing. The big breaking point was when the Trials of Ascension were suspended; that's when the middle class started to link hands with the underclass over being mistreated.

Of course, they then tossed them under the bus after the revolution ended. Because Elves.

[aono]

Don't have Land of Promise, but how is the racial distribution compared to that in the Tir handbook?

Tir Tairngire:
Human: 1%
Elf: 85%
Dwarf: 7%
Ork: 5%
Troll: Negligible
Other: 2%

The Land of Promise:
Human: 3%
Elf: 78%
Dwarf: 8%
Ork: 9%
Troll: 1%
Other: 1%

If you include SINless (7%), even existence of that was denied by old statistics, and take into account that, by Tir Tairngire, most of them was non-elves, it's kinda normal. Nothing really changed, and so it's claimed by shadowtalk.
Well. It's the same shadowtalk who feels good to blame Tir for inequality, and who don't notice that 30% of UCAS population are literally rightless, so I'd not take their opinion as last point.

Of course, they then tossed them under the bus after the revolution ended. Because Elves.

Thing is in a land with 80% elven population every mass movement will be elven. If you're going to take "millions" on the street (millions are at least 2, right?) in a five million nation, you can take literally EVERY ONE non-elf here and take at least one million of elves as well.
By the way in such a land having 5 of 13 high rulers as non-elves (old Tir numbers) is really non-representative. Damn, theoretically "representatives" of non-elves (including one dragon) was more than half needed to ban High Prince. True representative numbers should be something around 2 or 3 non-elven princes. Ok, old Tir Prince Council never claimed to be really "representative".
Intresting enough that tossed non-elven minorities have Zaitan, Hestaby, Rex, Foster, Demarco, Jaeger. It's again 5 from 13 in 80%-elven nation, or, if it's better, it's 10 voices from 18 (High Prince voice counted as 5) - and it's by elections, not by appointment. I'd say not bad for tossed minority.
Well. It WAS. Current, Telestrian Council looks more as "representative" one.

[Nath]

Rusty did a lot of research about population displacement for that one, sitting down with some university professors to figure it out. I give him mad props for going so deep just for demographics.

Wak already told you the lengths Rusty went through to get an accurate estimate of what would have/could have happened.

So.... are you arguing against his research and interviews? If that is the case, then do your own reasearch to refute it....

I don't get it. What R. Zimmeman wrote in The Land of Promise is an increase in population (+2% per year). Or did he research about population displacement to decide if he was going to retcon the whole thing, ultimately finding the previous drops were fine?