If Ares was going to split up, it would have done so earlier, when their troubles were in full swing. Knight controls the golden ticket, and he's not going anywhere. Especially since Ares seems to be on the road to recovery from the Excalibur debacle. Really, barring some catastrophic event like System Failure that destabilizes the entire planet, there are only a couple scenarios that lead to Ares getting the ax: 1) Detroit becomes Bug City 2.0, or some similar mass outbreak of bugs that is directly linked to Ares, or 2) Knight is assassinated. Now, there's problems with both points. For the first, we already have one sprawl under siege, and they tend to keep major metaplot arcs like that to one at a time. For the second, assassinating a board member of an AAA is damn tough, taking out the CEO is near impossible. Not completely so, however. Really, Knight getting killed is the only realistic way Ares goes down, as things currently stand. Now, things could develop that pushes Ares into a corner, and allows people to jump ship, but Vogel is the only one with enough clout to even dent Ares if he jumped, and it isn't clear just how much of the company he could take with him, since this isn't like Fuchi, where three people pooled their companies to make a mega. It is a lot harder for someone to just walk off with a chunk of the company. Knight's death, however, would mean his controlling stake in the company would be up for grabs, and NO ONE knows how that would play out.
Seriously, we're talking about companies that make Disney, Ford, Coca-cola, Delta Airlines, and Colt all put together look like preschoolers in comparison. They don't just collapse out of nowhere. They have to be vulnerable first. And the only ones that are really vulnerable right now are the three responsible for CFD and the Boston Lockdown. Look through the entries in Market Panic. Really, other than NeoNET and Evo, the other megas aren't in a vulnerable enough position to be brought down, not yet. Aztechnology would need a bit more of a push, such as NeoNET and Evo putting the blame for Boston on them, while something else happens. The AAAs are like great dragons. They can take a whole lot of pummeling before they go down, and eight of ten still have most of their hit points.