[belaran]

Am I really the only one rooting for Ares to disappear (maybe replaced "à la Novatech" by a new join venture between Damien Knight and Spinrad ?)

[Mirikon]

Ares would have to take a lot more hits to be in danger of falling, belaran. The situation just isn't the same as when Fuchi broke up and Villiers created Novatech. Ares doesn't have a 'piece' that gives them a golden ticket, the main body of the corp is the golden ticket. For similar reasons, no matter what happens, Aztechnology (nee ORO) will be on the Court. Unless, of course, something catastrophic happens and the corp literally ceases to exist, or they change the bylaws of the Court itself, removing the golden tickets (and THAT will never happen). Indeed, NeoNET is the only one of the golden ticket holders that has that ticket as a 'piece' instead of the 'whole'.

[belaran]

I don't think Ares could "disappear" but we have no idea to which extend the internal bug threat is. An interesting way of bringing back the bugs in front of the scene worldwide would be to discover that Ares has been infiltrated to a very high level but bugs. That, plus the fiasco on Excalibur, the retirement of Damien Knight (or him selling his stock to create something new with Spinrad), could really topple things over.

Also, the Devil Pact with Horizon might be interesting. A falling Ares may want to sell their consumer brand to Horizon or Horizon might be pushed to "rescue their partner" in exchange of some more political power at CC (for instance).

But honestly, I just hope NeoNET won't bite the bullet - this corp history is already too rich of merging and rebirth !

[Mirikon]

First off, Damien Knight will NEVER retire. Only way he is no longer on the board of Ares is if he is either killed or forced out. Neither of which are easily done. And he has no reason to go to Spinrad. Again, the situation just isn't the same as with Fuchi. Damien Knight is in full control of Ares, unlike the wars involved with Villiers in Fuchi. He is already on top of a AAA megacorp. He has no reason to chop it up and share power with a new player (Spinrad). And while the situation with Horizon brings up interesting points, it isn't damning like you seem to believe.

As for the bugs, we'll have to see. But it would take Universal Brotherhood levels of infestation to bring down Ares, either from inside or from an Omega Order by the rest of the Court. From everything we've seen, it is nowhere near that point.

NeoNET and EVO are the two that are most vulnerable at this time, NeoNET most of all, since Boston is pretty much directly their fault, and they have been as fractious as Fuchi of old. Yes, they went through this before, but lets face it, those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

[belaran]

You got Ares stock in your wallet, aren't you ?

Yes, I agree Evo and NeoNET are far more likely candidate, but that is also why I expect a twist here. We are all expecting NeoNET, or at least, Evo to take the blame, but maybe the line will take this story somewhere else ?

[Nightmare]

Well if Evo nor NeoNET fall, the one that has a potential to fall is Wuxing.  Why?  Well, no golden ticket, Maersk is making life hard for them, and they went to all-out corp war in Manhattan to gain a seat on the MDC.  Believe me, the Corp Court is not going to look kindly on having their Earth-side "home turf" being home to corp war.  But I still say Evo.....

[belaran]

Wuxing is a stretch. Yes, Maersk is going after them, but only on the Wuxing Worldwide Shipping front. Honestly, IMHO, I see more Maersk being absorbed by a pissed off Wuxing, than the chinese megacorporate to fall down... Dito for Aztechnology, btw, they are having a hard time, but unless someone pin CFD on them somehow, I don't see them fall easily.

If not NeoNET or Evo, Horizon would be a candidate, but like Wuxing i don't see them fall, but more gaming purpose. Indeed, Horizon is the "media corpo" (as Wuxing is the chinese one). From this point of view, getting ride of one more japan megacorp (Renraku has become quite useless storyline point of view - but I have yet to read their update in Market Panic).

[Mirikon]

Renraku, much like Shiawase, has decided to take the time honored track of stepping out of the limelight and letting everyone else go fight eachother while they sit back and just make tons of money. Sure, they haven't been bringing out flashy bleeding edge products lately, but they've quietly gained big market share in the service industry and data management. Meaning that they, literally, have their finger on the pulse of pretty much everyone's information. Like Shiawase providing power and trash services, it isn't glamorous, but they're working hard to make themselves indispensable.

[Nath]

Damien Knight is in full control of Ares, unlike the wars involved with Villiers in Fuchi. He is already on top of a AAA megacorp. He has no reason to chop it up and share power with a new player (Spinrad).

Damien Knight owns "only" 23.7% of Ares Macrotechnology stock. He needs at least minimal backing from other shareholders just to block Arthur Vogel, and one third of the minor shareholders should Vogel and Daviar vote together. And he'd need as much as two-thirds of the minor shareholders to secure a 50% majority in a worst case scenario.

It has been said he enjoiy some level of loyalty from a number of Ares shareholders, along with proxy rights. But proxy rights can be revoked, and loyalty is no guarantee (especially if Knight management should fail to deliver). He controls, but he's far from full control.

[belaran]

Yep, Damien Knight controls over Ares is certainly not a tight grip (as clearly explained in Market Panic). If Ares, as a whole, would be (maybe) difficult to dismantle, big changes in the structure could defintily arrived (but then it would not be the predicated "death of AAA").

[Nightmare]

Well, we know the following aren't going down because they are their golden tickets: Ares, MCT, and Shiawase, and Aztechnology

Now the followings golden tickets are subsidiaries:

Renraku via Izom (formally Keruba) - could be swiped but no one has ever tried it before
S-K via BMW - Llowfyr owns most of the stock in BMW but some unknown party owns part of the shares too
NeoNET via JRJ - lately it's where ever Villiers goes, though someone else could try to make a grab for it

Then these three are worried because they have no ticket:
Evo
Horizon
Wuxing

[Mirikon]

As Nightmare said, Ares, MCT, Shiawase, and Aztechnology are safe, unless the corp literally and completely ceases to exist, or they somehow get beat up so badly that an AA absorbs them to get their own ticket. All four have had problems, but none on THAT level. I don't think we'll see one of those four go down without another Crash or an Omega Order.

Renraku has been quiet, and isn't on any of the big player's hit lists right now, even though they're making lots of money. They're perfecting the art of being just out of sight/out of mind when people go looking for targets.

Lofwyr will eat anyone that tries to take BMW away. If they're lucky.

Which leaves the other four as possible candidates. Horizon and Wuxing don't have a ticket, but they're not in a whole lot of trouble right now. Something could shake loose, of course, but nothing we've seen so far suggests they'll get a downgrade unless some big moves get made during the Megacorporate Audit.

Evo and NeoNET are the corps on the ropes right now. Both are bloody from internal feuds and have had key board members 'removed'. Both have had a major hand in CFD, and Boston in particular. They are the ones that are vulnerable. At least one of them is going down.

[belaran]

I'm not sure that the equation "AAA possess a Golden Ticket => Safe" is correct, the golden ticket ensure just a seat at the CC to however possess the company having it. It does help, but it's not a "+25 shield against eveything", to make a D&D comparaison.

Also, Ares brand is currently quite bad, and let's imagine, by some twist of the story that somehow CFD gets pin down on them (unlikely granted) or just an other very bad "bug scandal" breakthrough. We could have the board joining behind Aurelius (let's say) and jump board and merging/join or build a new megacorp.

Now, we all agree, NeoNET is the most likely candidate. I'm just saying it could be somebody else ....

[Mirikon]

The AAAs with 'golden tickets' in the company itself, rather than a subsidiary (JRJ for NeoNET, Izom for Renraku, BMW for SK) are safely on the Court unless something happens that makes those corps cease to exist, globally, or the Court changes its rules to remove the tickets. Since the second will never happen, lets ignore that.

Ares's brand was in the crapper, but as of Market Panic, they've been rebuilding the brand and market share, and with Horizon's help on spin, they've been getting better. And the level of bug outbreak needed to bring them down would be Chicago level, at least. Remember, even the catastrophe that was the SCIRE shutdown didn't topple Renraku, and they spent the better part of a decade clawing their way back from that debacle. And what we're trying to tell you, belaran, is that Aurelius (or Knight, or Gavilan, or anyone else) can just slip off with the ticket like Villiers did with Fuchi. Ares as an entire megacorp would have to be grabbed by someone for the ticket to go somewhere. And as things stand (as of Market Panic), that just doesn't look to be in the cards.

[belaran]

So, taking your point of view on this, it basically means that, it's more/less a done deal, the AAA will be NeoNET, or maybe Evo (as there is no reason for Wuxing or Horizon to go away).