[Reaver]

I appreciate the more accurate numbers, FastJack. I think we're all still nowhere close to identifying the actual impact of piracy. It looks like you're suggesting that it cuts up to 75% of book sales, assuming that the initial print run would have otherwise sold 4,000 copies.

I'm not sure that's accurate- even among people who buy the book the month it comes out, at least some of them are going to be checking reviews of it first, and I'm sure people would still be ripping apart the PDF if they bought it/pirated it/etc the day of release, rather than a few months prior. The only difference is that word-of-mouth has a longer time to spread. I'd also question how many of the hard-copy buyers are looking stuff up on reddit first, especially the more "venerable" fans.

I think that the 6e release was also a "special circumstance" as well, which may impact things.

Also-

The cost to Freelancers and Artists to complete a book is usually between $0.10 and $1.00 per word, illustrators usually average around $200 a book. So, taking 30 Nights as an example, and say we're paying the authors $0.20 a word (which is closer to the game book average from what I've heard): 11 illustrators - $2200, ~90,000 words - $18,000, about $20,000 to pay the help.

I've heard that it's about 0.03/word on average in the TTRPG industry, topping out around $0.07 - $0.10 if you're lucky. $0.10 to $1.00 is more accurate for newspapers, magazines, and fiction freelance writers (Unless you're hiring editors/proofers as freelance, which are about $0.015 - $0.25/word. If you're totaling that together, then no worries). I've talked to people who told me that $0.10/word would be a pipe dream for RPGs, and one who got $0.015/word writing for Earthdawn 4E. Am I misinformed, or does CGL just pay a lot better than other RPG companies?

I think you are vastly overestimating the number of PDF sales to book sales.
People seem to think that PDFs sell better then DTF... and for some mediums that might be true. But for things like graphic novels, games books, and other "tactile" media, that's just not the case.

I thought for a long while that comics would just end up going digital, and that was where the sales were going. How wrong I was. Turns out that for graphic novels, PDF sales are only 8% of the DTF market. Comics are around 10%,,,, and I can only guess what games books would be at.


As to Piracy... for these niche markets, (games, comics, graphic novels) the estimate for piracy is actually very small. This is because the market itself is very small, and usually made up of dedicated people who support the industry, with piracy happening only on the "fringes" of the audience.

At least, that's what I am getting told..

[wraith]

once upon a time, before covid, the plan was for Rigger book to be out now at Gen Con.

The economic mayhem set everything back.

This confuses me. From my understanding, Catalyst relies heavily on freelancers. From my understanding, Freelancers are not an on-site position, requiring physically showing up to a central office.

Other thing confuses me, is why wouldn't Catalyst shift to PDF releases? If they're worried about that sweet, sweet up charge for a physical book, why not just make it so that Physical book is what you're pre-ordering, with the PDF coming with it and being released early? Then when book is released, offer the PDF independently as they do today for people who didn't want to pay the full book price?

This gives the added benefit of the PDF being in users hands, and effectively field tested, so that errata can be accounted for when time comes to actually print.

We all poke fun at Catalyst, their editing process, and the condition SR6 was in at release....this would literally be customers paying to edit in advance of the print of the book, getting access to the 'release' version of the PDF.

Given their editing woes, do you think they could actually find someone to format, index, and link a PDF in a useful way?   

I remember the 5e core book...

[Michael Chandra]

Sometimes NDAs are frustrating because they make gossip impossible.

Anyway, to quote Discord:
---
And here are the upcoming books according to Jason Hardy from a Facebook post.


Upcoming:
Slip Streams (plot book)
Collapsing Now (Threats-like book)
Street Wyrd (core magic book)
---
Will see when exactly. Looking forward to customizable spells myself. Also <spoiler> and <spoiler> in Collapsing Now.

[0B]

I think you are vastly overestimating the number of PDF sales to book sales.
People seem to think that PDFs sell better then DTF... and for some mediums that might be true. But for things like graphic novels, games books, and other "tactile" media, that's just not the case.

I thought for a long while that comics would just end up going digital, and that was where the sales were going. How wrong I was. Turns out that for graphic novels, PDF sales are only 8% of the DTF market. Comics are around 10%,,,, and I can only guess what games books would be at.


As to Piracy... for these niche markets, (games, comics, graphic novels) the estimate for piracy is actually very small. This is because the market itself is very small, and usually made up of dedicated people who support the industry, with piracy happening only on the "fringes" of the audience.

At least, that's what I am getting told..

Oh, I'm almost certainly overestimating things. Still, you only need one person to buy the PDF and scrub the watermarks in order for them to post it online somewhere.

I definitely think that the impact of piracy on RPGs is smaller than 75%, 50%, or even 25%. If you count illegal downloads as "lost sales," then maybe those numbers might add up, but that's flawed reasoning. If someone can't afford to buy an RPG, or wanted to "test drive" it first but didn't have a friend with a copy, then they shouldn't count as lost sales. In fact, the latter group might be potential increased sales.

Studies of video game piracy show that it either does nothing or may even improve sales. There's a lot less info about board games, only a few articles about counterfeit board games sold in China and other countries where shipping costs make board games too expensive for the average user (Or where the local law just doesn't care about IP). And everything about TTRPG piracy that I was able to find was speculation, forum threads, or individual developers' opinions on the subject.

And there's nothing to support that an early PDF release would increase the rate. I'll believe that the original 6e PDF piracy impacted sales, but I also think that bad reviews would have done the same thing.

I don't think TTRPG piracy rates are well understood enough to make the assertion that piracy of 6e caused a 75% drop in sales. I think it would be fallacious to then apply that to piracy of any book, since 6e's release was "special."

Given their editing woes, do you think they could actually find someone to format, index, and link a PDF in a useful way?   

I remember the 5e core book...

6e actually does link to the correct pages. Can't fault it for that

Sometimes NDAs are frustrating because they make gossip impossible.

Anyway, to quote Discord:
---
And here are the upcoming books according to Jason Hardy from a Facebook post.


Upcoming:
Slip Streams (plot book)
Collapsing Now (Threats-like book)
Street Wyrd (core magic book)
---
Will see when exactly. Looking forward to customizable spells myself. Also <spoiler> and <spoiler> in Collapsing Now.

Tricky tricky. What if you did the spoilers all in klingon? Hardly anyone speaks klingon...

[penllawen]

The monthly costs are all still the same, but now you're revenue turns into only the $8,000 for the first month and, since you dropped the PDF much earlier than the print book, it's not as popular a release

Do you have any data for the implication here that people who wanted the physical book will settle for the PDF instead?

I only have anecdotes, but most people I see on TTRPG forums tend to be "PDF people" or "dead tree people". Whichever you prefer, that's the one you want. I don't think a lot of people are equally fond of either format, and hence I don't think there are a lot of people who will say "well, I wanted the book, but I'll get the PDF instead", or vice versa. The two are not fungible, in economics terms.

(most likely due to word of mouth about editing mistakes, how they nerfed armor, or some other factors).

Poor early word of mouth can also be countered by releasing better books. In fact, I'd go so far as to say: if your business is founded on the idea you can put out inferior stuff and sell it to early purchasers before they realise it's bad, that's pretty unethical.

So the physical book releases, you've already paid for 5,000 books, but only sell about 1,000 since everyone is "waiting for the errata to be integrated" in the second printing

Delayed sales due to potential customers waiting for errata to drop can also be countered by not having a long track record of releasing sloppily edited books.

Trust me, the gaming companies have thought this through more than you or I. If it had a chance of working, you'd have seen it already.

The sixth printing of the 5e CRB still says a Matrix perception check can tell you the target's "commode", so I'm afraid I don't see why it's obviously true that CGL have special insight or a fearsome attention to detail.

Or maybe you mean across the whole game industry, not just CGL. Well, as has already been said in this thread Posthuman - crewed by ex-CGL writers, no less - put out their PDFs under open licenses for free. By your logic, they should be bleeding money on their books. Are they?

[Michael Chandra]

Tricky tricky. What if you did the spoilers all in klingon? Hardly anyone speaks klingon...

I hear Finn Hardy does. o,o He speaks in it while planning to usurp his father.

[penllawen]

6e actually does link to the correct pages. Can't fault it for that

But it only has one level of bookmarks in the PDF, which is very annoying. Here's a tiny bit of 5e's versus the entirety of 6e's: https://imgur.com/a/T7t8YNd

[0B]

6e actually does link to the correct pages. Can't fault it for that

But it only has one level of bookmarks in the PDF, which is very annoying. Here's a tiny bit of 5e's versus the entirety of 6e's: https://imgur.com/a/T7t8YNd

That's a good point- hopefully they add those in in one of the next errata updates. 5e having more isn't great since they're all wrong- like ordering one scoop of chocolate ice cream, but instead getting 5 scoops of orange sherbet. There's more of it, but it's not quite what I wanted. (I guess in this metaphor, 6e's index is half a scoop of chocolate ice cream? Maybe I just need to go have lunch)

Still, if you give me a reason to gripe about 5e... I will gripe about 5e

[penllawen]

That's a good point- hopefully they add those in in one of the next errata updates.

If I played 6e, I'd have hacked it myself by now. (It's very easy to do with a script to something like pdftk.)

5e having more isn't great since they're all wrong- like ordering one scoop of chocolate ice cream, but instead getting 5 scoops of orange sherbet.

You're not wrong! Even worse are some of the 5e splats. Here's Kill Code. Not only is there only one level, but the chapter headings are fluff text that is almost meaningless out of context: https://imgur.com/a/SUJT0X4

[FastJack]

The monthly costs are all still the same, but now you're revenue turns into only the $8,000 for the first month and, since you dropped the PDF much earlier than the print book, it's not as popular a release

Do you have any data for the implication here that people who wanted the physical book will settle for the PDF instead?

I only have anecdotes, but most people I see on TTRPG forums tend to be "PDF people" or "dead tree people". Whichever you prefer, that's the one you want. I don't think a lot of people are equally fond of either format, and hence I don't think there are a lot of people who will say "well, I wanted the book, but I'll get the PDF instead", or vice versa. The two are not fungible, in economics terms.

None really, just personal anecdotes and watching the reaction of people that hear what's in the book before it's release based on PDFs released/pirated before.

[penllawen]

None really, just personal anecdotes and watching the reaction of people that hear what's in the book before it's release based on PDFs released/pirated before.

Then I reiterate:

Poor early word of mouth can also be countered by releasing better books. In fact, I'd go so far as to say: if your business is founded on the idea you can put out inferior stuff and sell it to early purchasers before they realise it's bad, that's pretty unethical.

[FastJack]

None really, just personal anecdotes and watching the reaction of people that hear what's in the book before it's release based on PDFs released/pirated before.

Then I reiterate:

Poor early word of mouth can also be countered by releasing better books. In fact, I'd go so far as to say: if your business is founded on the idea you can put out inferior stuff and sell it to early purchasers before they realise it's bad, that's pretty unethical.

And I said nothing against that statement. So why continue to bring it up? The Shadowrun team made a decision for Sixth World, and that decision will stand until 7th edition is released (which won't be for quite a while).

[0B]

Either way, I think at least someone is listening to you, penllawen. I saw that the missions FAQ dropped and they specifically addressed anticipation, as well as a maximum for amp up (Maybe this is old news? I only saw it an hour or so ago).

Regardless of opinions on the state of 5e vs 6e at release, 6e has gotten significantly more official errata added in than 5e did. The official PDF had about 70-80 changes in January (Most of which came from the August errata, I think), and then in February another 65 errata were published (I haven't checked to see if February has been folded into the PDF or not). Compare to the ~40 errata that were released in the SR 5e errata, which were not folded into the PDF AFAIK.

I don't think this is strictly a case of one edition "needing" more errata than another, because there's a lot of 5e errata still sitting in the thread on this forum that hasn't been addressed. I mean, 2e has maybe a dozen errata, but still has issues with having a skill for lifting, and then mechanics for lifting that don't use the skill. However, it's often touted as the "fix" for 1e since a lot of things from 1e to 2e were adjusted.

So, state of 6e? I don't think it's at a "No Man's Sky" comeback with the community, but it's significantly better than it was at release.

[Michael Chandra]

When it became clear the Anticipation + Firing Modes combination were leading to confusion, with various CDT Agents having different interpretations, I made sure to bring it up for being in need of a decision for table unity, and I provided explanations for where the different interpretations were coming from. I don't parse the rules the same way it's been ruled in the FAQ, but it's a fair and balanced way to go at it.

As for January updated PDF vs Augustus+February errata files, there's a few discrepancies between them but not many, see my analysis here: https://forums.shadowruntabletop.com/index.php?topic=31170.msg536323#msg536323

[markelphoenix]

Sometimes NDAs are frustrating because they make gossip impossible.

Anyway, to quote Discord:
---
And here are the upcoming books according to Jason Hardy from a Facebook post.


Upcoming:
Slip Streams (plot book)
Collapsing Now (Threats-like book)
Street Wyrd (core magic book)
---
Will see when exactly. Looking forward to customizable spells myself. Also <spoiler> and <spoiler> in Collapsing Now.

Literally refresh forums 20 times a day in hopes of magic book dropping